Evolution du PIB en volume – En millions d’euros (euros chaînés, année de référence ) Sources: ICN, Commission européenne – Calculs IWEPS. pétrole, le Produit Intérieur Brut (PIB) a connu une croissance de 5,8 % en . Approche de calcul Ventilation du PIB réel trimestriel par secteurs d’activités. 22 déc. Dans le classement par le PIB réel, les mêmes pays tiennent la tranche Calculer le PIB consiste à faire la somme des valeurs ajoutées des.

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Given such a debt level, nominal growth needs to be at least 2. Given an average yearly price increase of 1. If we take into account an average price increase of 1. Such growth is still remarkably low. Even in such rare cases of lacklustre growth, the debt-reduction rule would most likely not be applied in a stricter manner then the golden rule. The Stability Pact explicitly foresees a flexible interpretation of calcu fiscal rules in case of a protracted period of very low growth.

In those circumstances, both the debt-reduction rule and the golden rule would thus be applied in an ad hoc manner. EU rules allow for a less strict application of the debt-reduction rule when the primary balance which excludes interest expenditure suggests so. For highly indebted countries, the primary balance will be in a major surplus if the actual deficit would be only 0. Even for Greece, the debt-reduction rule would hence dk of little relevance if it meets its national golden rule.

Cateva ganduri de la Matei Paun, plb economist influent care merita citit intr-un context in care calul BNR au parca infailibilitate:. In Statele Unite, in Anglia si chiar si in Uniunea Europeana, bancile centrale au cumparat obligatiuni emise eel stat, refinantand astfel datoria publica. Asta ar trebuie sa faca si BNR. Este posibil ca BNR sa spuna ca legea nu permite asa ceva, dar atunci trebuie schimbata legea.

Si in alte state, acolo unde a fost ipb problema cu legea, legea s-a schimbat. Daca statul ar scapa de problema datoriei pe termen scurt si-ar permite sa plateasca ariratele, ajutand astfel economia. Atitudinea care nu se vu situatiei de fata este una antiinflationita. Nu inteleg cum cineva isi poate face griji legate de inflatie, cand economia este in picaj de cand a inceput criza.

In plus, inflatia de baza core inflation este rezultatul unui dezechilibru intre cerere si oferta. Inflatia se naste cand exista o cerere prea mare pentru o oferta prea mica.

Cum putem noi avea o cerere prea mare in momentul de fata, cand economia a scazut cat a scazut? Daca privim celalalte elemente care rrl cu cresterea preturilor, majorarea TVA si a accizelor, este adevarat ca ele au impact asupra inflatiei, dar efectul este pe termen scurt si nu se rezolva prin o politica monetara stransa pentru ca o crestere a inflatiei pe termen scurt nu inseamna ca economia in sine are o problema legata de inflatie.

Timp de 20 de ani BNR s-a luptat cu inflatia cu un efect indoielnic insa, tinand cont ca Romania a avut intotdeauna una din cele mai inalte rate de cresteri de preturi din UE. Atitudinea sa accentueaza criza. BNR ar trebui sa incurajeze cresterea economica prin curs.

Quels sont les 5 premiers pays par le PIB – Medyaturk

Dupa 3 ani de criza, cursul este relativ in acelasi punct in care era la inceputul crizei. Daca ne uitam la celelalte tari din jur vedem ca, fara exceptie, monedele lor s-au depreciat in criza si asta pentru ca o ajustare economica este foarte mult ajutata de o ajustare a cursului. Daca leul se depreciaza exporturile cresc si importurile scad, economia se echilibreaza.

Ungaria de exemplu a trecut printr-o criza majora, iar moneda lor s-a depreciat puternic, si cred ca ei acum o duc mai bine decat o ducem noi. Si nu sunt singurii. Asadar, aceste mecanisme functioneaza si sunt folosite de altii.

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Doar la noi nu sunt folosite pentru ca avem aceasta problema de mentalitate legata de inflatie si de creditele in euro, care ar fi ambele afectate de o depreciere a leului. Deprecierea leului ar putea genera cresterea restantelor, care ar afecta bilanturile bancilor.

Daca vom continua in acelasi ritm am putea ajunge in scurt timp la situatia Greciei. Cresterea datoriei externe din ultimul timp este o problema.

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O problema este si faptul ca ne indatoram in euro, ceea ce ne expune riscului valutar. Nu inteleg de ce trebuie sa finantam constructia de autostrazi in euro, cand forta de munca folosita de constructori este platita in lei, iar materia prima este cumparata cu lei. Numai ca noi, pentru a face pe plac firmelor de constructii, indexam totul in euro, ceea ce ne va crea mari probleme in viitor.

Facturile la telefon sunt practic in euro, cele la electricitate la fel etc. Cred ca este inevitabila si foarte de dorit o depreciere a leului, pentru a se reechilibra dezechilibrele. Leul a evoluat total anormal in comparatie cu monedele acestor tari. If a country is like the United States or Japan, and borrows almost entirely in its own currency, then it would only default on its debt as a political decision e. Since it issues its own currency, it can always issue the currency needed to finance its debt.

There markets seem to understand this point very well. The countries that issue debt in their own currency e. Sansa adoptarii euro a murit inodata cu lansarea crizei. Trebuie sa uitam de euro in momentul de fata. Cred ca vor trece inca 10 ani inainte de adoptarea euro. Intrarea in zona euro acum este pericolul cel mai mare pentru o revenire economica.

Preocuparea BNR ar trebui sa fie strict relansarea economica. Profiturile pe care le au acum bancile sunt extrem de mari in comparative cu volumul enorm de credite neperformante.

Ele au reusit sa atinga aceasta performanta cu sprijinul finantelor si al BNR-ului. BNR le-a finantat la o anumita dobanda iar ele au imprumutat apoi statul la o dobanda mai mare castigand din marja. Totodata, au fost ajutate de leu, care nu este lasat sa se deprecieze.

Desigur, curatarea de portofolii ar insemna ca unele firme care nu mai reusesc sa isi plateasa datoriile sa intre in insolventa, dar asa functioneaza o economie normala si astfel se creeaza o baza sanatoasa pentru o eventuala relansare. Ca sa ajute economia, guvernul ar trebui sa aiba o politica bugetara inteligenta.

Pana acum, raspunsul sau a fost sa taie, de fiecare data cand a aparut o problema. Eu cred ca suntem capabili de o gandire mai complexa: Este ciudat ca bancile sunt foarte bine reprezentate in Consiliul Fiscal.

Ele reprezinta, practic, Consiliul Fiscal si nu inteleg de ce: Sa nu uitam ca ele sunt foarte interesate de felul in care se contureaza politica fiscala la noi pentru ca expunerea pe care o au in Romania este enorma si fac tot ce se poate pentru a isi salva pielea. Trei istorici ai economiei se uita la Marea Criza din anii treizeci si se intraba in ce tari este probabila ridicarea dreptei extreme in vreme de criza. Our statistical results show that that the Depression was good for fascists.

It was especially good for fascists in countries that had not enjoyed democracy before ; where fascist parties already had a parliamentary base; in countries on the losing side in WWI; and in countries that experienced boundary changes after Since Germany ticks each of these boxes and saw a particularly large increase in the fascist vote, one may ask whether these interaction effects are driven by the German experience alone.

The answer is that they are not. Importantly, it shows that what mattered was not the current growth of the economy but cumulative growth or, more to the point, the depth of the cumulative recession.

One year of contraction was not enough to significantly boost extremism, in other words, but a depression that persisted for years was. The results stand up to the inclusion of control variables, including period dummies, the urbanisation rate, and the effective electoral threshold, and to alternative econometric specifications. In other regressions, we again find that the impact of poor growth was greater in countries where fascists were already represented in parliament and in countries with shorter histories of democracy.

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Our results are thus consistent with the claim of authors such as Almond and Verba that political culture mattered, erl with the argument of Persson and Tabellini that countries with a longer history of democracy accumulate social and political capital that increases the probability that they will be able to resist threats to the prevailing political system. Finally, we find that the electoral success of right-wing anti-system parties was shaped calcil the structure of the electoral system.

A higher minimum share of the vote needed in order for a party to gain parliamentary representation made it more difficult for fringe parties to translate votes into seats and lowered fascist electoral gains. Fernholz and Fernholz fac o analiza economica din care rezulta ca in lipsa redistribuitiei prin politica impozitelor si cea fiscala am avea societati cu un mare rad de volatilitate a distributiei ventiturilor si tendinta clara de concentrare a lor la varf.

Ma rog, asta stiam, dar e bine sa avem si modelarea economica pentru a sustine argumentul pro-redistributie contestat de dreapta. Iata analiza cu cifre facuta Ionut Dumitru, boss-ul Consiliului Fiscal, organizatie ale carui referinte conservatoare sunt din cele mai impecabile.

Ideea de baza este ca posibilitatea de interventie a statului prin politica fiscala va fi chiar mai redus in viitoare crize decat a fost sub guvernul Boc. Romania a avut in pkb o politica fiscala discretionara prociclica, indisciplinata, accentuand dezechilibrele macroeconomice in loc sa le atenueze. Astfel, deficitul structural a crescut in mod inutil cand PIB-ul era peste nivelul potential, anuland astfel actiunea stabilizatorilor automati.

Noua regula care limiteaza deficitul structural la 0. Daca regula ar fi functionat in trecut, un calcul simplu, desi nu corect in totalitate, arata ca de piib, in cand PIB-ul era peste potential, Romania ar fi trebuit sa aiba un excedent bugetar de 2. De altfel, in toata perioadaRomania ar fi trebuit sa aiba excedente bugetare, PIB-ul fiind in acea perioada peste nivelul sau potential, iar deficitul bugetar structural de numai 0. Dezavantajul noii reguli fiscale europene pentru Romania este ca spatiul de manevra existent pentru a putea stimula economia in perioadele de recesiune va fi foarte redus.

In cazul Romaniei, limita de deficit structural de 0. Prin asumarea unei tinte de deficit structural maxim de 0. Just five years ago, macroeconomists talked about a new synthesis, bringing together Keynesian and Classical ideas in a unified, microfounded theoretical framework. Following the Great Recession, it appears that mainstream macroeconomics has once again split into schools of thought.

This column explains why macroeconomics, unlike microeconomics, periodically fragments in this way. An Introduction to Competing Schools of Thought.

Macroeconomists tended to take sides, and different schools had clear ideological associations. Antagonists often talked across each other, and anyone not already on one side just got totally confused. Schools of thought fragmented mainstream macroeconomics in a way that had no parallel in mainstream microeconomics.

But then things began to change. The discipline appeared to become much more unified.

Produch interior brut – Wikipèdia

Other authors wrote along similar lines eg Woodford and Arestis This synthesis did only apply to what is generally described as mainstream economics. Heterodox economists continued to organise in schools for example neo-Marxists, post-Keynesians, and Austrians. There were two main factors behind this synthesis. The first was microfoundations, ie cacul the components of macro models from standard optimisation applied to representative agents.